Is Alexander Isak worth the money?

I’m using the ASR (Anorak Statistical Ratings) system to assess forwards performance up to and including Game Week 7. The ASR is looking at players considered strikers or attacking midfielders so some players who come under the classification of specialist or defensive midfielders are not included.

There is a total of 96 forwards and Alexander Isak (Liverpool) just creeps into the stats on the above criteria as one of three players with the minimum 3 games, the others being Omar Marmoush (Man City) and Joël Piroe (Leeds Utd). The rest are 4 or more and includes games where they have come on as a sub.

There is a big weighting in the ASR towards goals scored (excluding penalties). After all if a striker isn’t scoring he’s not really doing his job. And attacking midfielders should be contributing to the goals column as well. Metrics included in the rating are npxG (expected non-penalty goals), Shots, Shots on Target Percentage, Assists, xAG (expected assisted goals), Touches (in strategic areas of the pitch), Carries, Passes Received, Take-Ons and more. Each metric is weighted to give a final rating out of 100 but that is measured against the average being adjusted to 50.

So if you love that kind of geeky talk or it has your head spinning, either way it will come as no surprise that Erling Haaland is out on top.

But there are some surprises, like Callum Wison (West Ham) in at #9. His game time has been limited but going by his stats he has performed when given the chance. Remember that although goals scored is significant, other areas of a player’s game that create assists or chances or his touches on the ball in attacking areas etc. influence his rating.

Also limited game time can make you seem better than you are as your stats will more than likely even out over more games played. Even so the ASR has Callum Wilson (#9), who went to West ham on a free transfer, well ahead of Alexander Isak (#83) who cost Liverpool £125M. If you are Arne Slot you would have to hope Isak’s stats even out upwards… but I’m sure Numo Santo is also hoping Wilson’s stats do not even out downwards toooo much. Should Santo start Wilson more (and maybe he should be with fellow West Ham striker Niclas Fullkrug at #92) if his stats stay roughly where they are with more game time? I guess the point I am trying to make is that Callum Wilson is looking like a bargain as a ‘FREE’. Whereas Isak’s value is questionable if his game doesn’t pick up over the rest of the season, otherwise Slot may be ringing Eddie Howe at Newcastle and asking for a refund (or a swap for Nick Woltemade (#19)… that is just a joke, no really it is)

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Free from Everton to Leeds Utd) is #40, seven ahead of Mo Salah (Liverpool) at #47. Is Calvert Lewin perfoming to expectation or over performing at this early part of the season and is Mo Salah under performing? That wasn’t really a question. Salah will come right, won’t he? Although Salah is now 33 and Calvert-Lewin is 28. The latter should be more in his prime than the former. Is Salah just starting a to feel his age a little bit? Or is Salah feeling the affects of a new Liverpool style that Slot is bringing, along with new team mates. Now that Trent Alexander-Arnold has gone to Real Madrid this is one supply line that is missing for Salah. And I think Alexander-Arnold is being well missed.

Anyway, its early days yet so this table could look very different by the time the season comes towards its end. But hopefully you will cast your eye over the ratings and see more stats that make you ponder such as:

All stats for this analysis are provided by FBref