What do the xG stats of the Top 4 after Game Week 15 tell us?
#24 Premier League Top 4 xGs
As I said in post #23…
xG is the most valuable indicator of performance over larger sample sizes (10+ games). Variances in how many goals were actually scored in a game compared to the team’s xG (for that game) tend to even out over a season, and teams generally regress toward their xG average.
So…
If Team A’s xG average is 1.2 and Team B’s xG average is 2.3, then over the course of the season Team B will score far more goals than Team A. Subsequently Team B should finish higher up the table.
Lets take a look at the top 4 teams after Game Week 15
Arsenal 1st
Key Takeaways:
Average xG is 1.7. 3rd highest xG in the league. Title contenders for sure No.1 !!!
xG is trending up slightly, indicating performances are steady
Has only 4 game xGs equal to or higher than 2.0. Reliant on solid defence to win
4 games with an xG equal to or less than 1.0. Backs up reliance on a solid defence
Man City 2nd
Key Takeaways:
Average xG is 1.9. 1st in the league for xG. Title contenders for sure No.2 !!
xG is trending up markedly, indicating performances are on the rise
Has 8 game xGs equal to or higher than 2.0. Indicates an attack minded philosophy
Only 2 games with an xG less than 1.0, indicating expected to score at least one in every game
Aston Villa 3rd
Average xG is 1.1. Only 13th= for xG. But… they are flying right now, Title contenders No.3 ? Not convinced just yet. Lets wait a whiles (sic)
xG is trending up like a rocket, indicating performances are off the chart compared to the start of the season
Only 2 games with xGs higher than 2.0. But that is their last 2 games. Good patch or is this really ‘Go Time’?
7 games with an xG less than 1.0 indicating they have been very inconsistent through their first 10 games
Crystal Palace 4th
Average xG is 1.6 4th= for xG. , Title contenders No.4 ??? Maybe not, going by the hot takes below
xG is trending down unlike the top 3 teams. Could be a sign they will fade as tthe season progresses
Their xG has tailed off after GW8 with 4 out of the next 7 games being less than 0.8
There was a xG of 4.4 in the 3-3 draw with Bournemouth which will have spiked their average a little
Final Verdict:
But hold on. There is also xG Against. How does that factor in to a teams performance?
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All stats for this analysis are provided by Sports Reference
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Batman (Adam West)
The Devil is in the Detail