Who will have the biggest impact, Mateta or Isak?
Bournemouth vs Fulham
Game Week 7 analysis of Friday night football and we make a prediction… again.
I’m curious to see if the stats can help with a bit of forecasting. But it might be a bit like the weather. They forecast rain and then its sunny. So lets see how we go, each week I predict it will give me more insight for the next prediction… or I’ll stick to using stats to just analyse past performance, if my prediction failure rate is too high.
I didn’t do very well last week where I looked at total form (home and away) and then factored in a home and away component. Prediction was Crystal Palace 1 Liverpool 2. I got the score right but it was 2-1 to Palace.
This week I have taken the stats from each team’s relevant home or away fixtures only and ignored the shooting and possession metrics. Lets see how I do based on some xG stats
Current Form & League Position
Bournemouth: 6th. 2 wins and 1 draw at home (7 points)
Fulham: 11th. 1 draw and 2 losses away (1 point)
Actual Goals and xG breakdown (all stats are per 90 mins for the 2025-26 season)
As you would expect Bournemouth edge the stats because I am looking at home form against Fulham’s away form.
Goals per game: Bournemouth 1.0 (at home) vs Fulham 0.67 (away)
Expected goals (xG) per 90: Bournemouth 1.1 (at home) vs Fulham 0.9 (away)
Goals conceeded per game: Bournemouth 0.3 (at home) vs Fulham 2.0 (away)
Expected goals (xGA) conceeded per 90: Bournemouth 0.4 (at home) vs Fulham 1.6 (away)
When you look at the xG and xGA of both teams Bournemouth are performing pretty much as expected, but Fulham are slightly under-performing. Enough to get a result though?
I don’t think so. Fulham have so far conceeded more than their xGA. Even if they live up (or maybe that should be down?) to their xGA I think they will still conceed at least 2 goals to Bournemouth.
So using the ASR (AnorakFC Statistical Ratings) System the predicted goals are Bournemouth 2.6, Fulham 1.4. Because Bournemouth are averaging a goal a game at home I’m rounding the 2.6 down. And because Fulham are under-performing away from home I am also rounding their 1.4 down.
Final Prediction:
Bournemouth 2 Fulham 1
BUT…
Bournemouth have Unal, Smith and Cook probably out injured. I don’t see this impacting the team.
Fulham potentially have Tete, Jimenez and Muniz out. Jimenez and Muniz’s combined away xG per game is 0.2 and they have both scored a goal each away from home.
So I’m going to throw in a couple of other results that I think may eventuate.
Bournemouth 3 Fulham 1 and Bournemouth 2 Fulham 0. Covering my bets I know but this is an experiment after all😉
All stats for this analysis are provided by FBref
FROM THE DUGOUT
"I sometimes value much more a player carrying the ball and forcing things to happen... I want him to attack first.”
Andoni Iraola
The Devil is in the Detail