Who will have the biggest impact, Mateta or Isak?
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
Game Week 6 Analysis and we make a prediction…
We have taken the stats from all games played this season and then factored in a home advantage component for the prediction.
Current Form & League Position
Liverpool: 1st. Perfect record with 5 wins from 5 matches (15 points)
Crystal Palace: 5th. Solid start with 2 wins and 3 draws (9 points, unbeaten)
Key Statistical Analysis (all stats are per 90 mins for the 2025-26 season)
Attacking Performance
Liverpool edges superiority even though the metrics are two each.
Goals per game: Liverpool 2.2 vs Palace 1.2
Expected goals (xG/90): Palace 1.7 vs Liverpool 1.4
Shots per 90: Liverpool 14.0 vs Palace 11.2
Shot accuracy: Palace 35.7% vs Liverpool 32.9%
One interesting insight is that Palace actually has a higher xG/90 and Shot Accuracy, suggesting they create better quality chances but struggle with finishing compared to Liverpool's clinical edge. Lets assume Isak will start and Ekitike who is suspended won’t be missed, so I’m giving Attacking Performance to Liverpool, even though the stats are 2-2
Defensive Solidity
Palace shows superior defensive metrics.
Goals conceded per game: Palace 0.4 vs Liverpool 1.0
Clean sheet percentage: Palace 60% vs Liverpool 40%
Both teams have identical expected goals against difference (xGD: 0)
Defence could be Palace’s saving grace.
Possession & Build-up Play
Liverpool dominates possession-based metrics.
Carries per 90: Liverpool 392.2 vs Palace 269.0
Progressive distance: Liverpool 1,112.2 vs Palace 714.8
Pass completion: Liverpool 90.9% vs Palace 88.7%
Passes into final third: Liverpool 39.6 vs Palace 20.6
Superior possession generally wins out.
Creative Output
Liverpool again in the creativity metrics
Goal-creating actions: Liverpool 4.0 vs Palace 2.2 per 90
Shot-creating actions: Liverpool 25.2 vs Palace 19.6 per 90
Progressive passes: Liverpool 45.6 vs Palace 29.8 per 90
Home Advantage Factor
Crystal Palace will benefit from playing at Selhurst Park, traditionally a fortress with passionate support (duh!, like every home ground I guess, but still true) that can unsettle visiting teams. However, Liverpool's current form and superior attacking/possession/creativity metrics suggest they can overcome this advantage.
Key Tactical Battle
The match will likely be decided by whether Palace's disciplined defensive structure (0.4 goals conceded per game) can contain Liverpool's attacking play and superior creative output. Will the game follow Liverpool’s MO for this season and be decided in the final minutes again, or will their luck run out this time?
Prediction:
Crystal Palace 1 Liverpool 2
Our thinking…
Perfect record momentum: Liverpool's 100% win rate indicates exceptional form and confidence
Clinical finishing: Despite Palace's higher xG, Liverpool converts chances more effectively
Creative superiority: Liverpool's significant advantage in goal-creating and shot-creating actions
Possession dominance: Liverpool's superior ball retention and progression will eventually break down Palace's defence
Expected outcome alignment: Liverpool's actual goal difference matches their underlying metrics better than Palace's
Why not a bigger margin you may ask, when Liverpool look far stronger on paper?
Palace's excellent defensive record (60% clean sheets) will make them difficult to break down
Home advantage at Selhurst Park
Palace's unbeaten start suggests resilience and organization. Their higher xG indicates they can create chances to score and also suggests they should maybe doing even better than 5th at this early stage.
Final Verdict:
I’m going out on a limb with this prediction based on the stats, because my gut feel is that Palace will get something out of this game. They have already met once this season in the Community Shield which we all know Palace won on penalties. But are there two defining components missing from Palace between then and now? Eze has jumped ship to Arsenal and Ismaila Sarr looks like he will be out of this game with a hamstring injury.
Lets see.
All stats for this analysis are provided by FBref
FROM THE DUGOUT
"All this time people try to get better to improve and to take the next title. History is only the base for us. But you’re not allowed to carry around your big history with you in a backpack.”
Jurgen Klopp
The Devil is in the Detail