34% Possession, 3 Points: How Amorim’s 'Survival Pivot' Stunned Newcastle.

Okay… its been a fair few days between posts. Some background on that before we get to the main meal (the actual stats post for this week).

The Anorak FC backroom has been struggling with what direction to take due to some poor form lately (subscriber count is stagnant).

We transferred in X a few weeks ago (broke the rules there, the January transfer window hasn’t opened ☹) to lead the attack as an upfront striker. X scored a couple of goals for us (new X followers) but we still weren’t winning (getting more newsletter subsribers)

I put a phone call in to Ruben Amorim at Man Utd to get his advice on the best formation to use. He told me 3-4-3 is unquestionably the best. Apparently the Pope (the actual Vatican Pope not Newcastle’s keeper Nick Pope) tried to get him to change but he wouldn’t. But given the time of year he caved in to the Pope and changed for the Boxing Day game to 4-2-3-1… the result?… a Christmas miracle! At half time the Pope offered Ruben the Popemobile to use as a ‘park-the-bus’ tactic to defend Man Utd’s 1-0 lead. Amorim decided to just increase the Man Utd back line to eventually 6 players instead as the clock wound down. And low and behold it worked despite Newcastle having 66% possession! Man Utd beat Newcastle Utd 1-0.

Anyway back to what’s next for Anorak FC… We are going to play with a new formation. In the past, each week we came up with a different formation (stats post subject). From hereon the plan is to use the one formation as recommended by Amorim. So we will be more focused.

We will take one game each week and focus on how and why it panned out the way it did, backed up by the stats. This week it would be rude not to take a look at Man Utd v Newcastle Utd seeing as my good friend Ruben has been so helpful. So let’s get to it…

Amorim’s "Pope" Moment

After famously saying "not even the Pope" could convince him to ditch his back three, Amorim started with a back four (4-2-3-1/4-3-3). Without Bruno Fernandes (injury) and Mbeumo and Amad (both at the AFCON), he sacrificed his 3-4-3 system for defensive solidity and localised overloads in midfield.

The Dorgu Transformation

Patrick Dorgu didn’t just play right-wing, he played as an inverted outlet. His vollied goal wasn't luck, it was the result of Amorim positioning him higher to exploit Newcastle’s Lewis Hall’s aggressive positioning at left back.

The 34% Masterclass & The Low-Block Lockdown

If you looked at the stats alone, you’d think Newcastle dominated. They had 66% possession and 11 corners. But from a coaching perspective, United controlled the spaces if not the ball.

Amorim realised early in the second half that without Bruno, United couldn't transition effectively through the middle. When Mason Mount went off at halftime with an injury precaution (replaced by Jack Fletcher), the team shifted from a proactive 4-2-3-1 into a deep 5-4-1 block, which eventually looked like a back six in the final 10 minutes after Fredricson and Malacia came on.

19-year-old Ayden Heaven was the tactical anchor. As a coach, you’d look at his 8 clearances and his positioning against Nick Woltemade. He didn't get pulled out of the "corridor of uncertainty," forcing Newcastle to settle for 16 shots, of which only 3 were on target. Heaven’s handling of Woltamade was probably a factor in the latter being substituted off for Yoane Wissa too.

Amorim "parked the bus" out of necessity. Newcastle’s Field Tilt was massive, but their Shot Quality was poor because United’s vertical compactness restricted them to low-value strikes from distance (like Lewis Hall’s crossbar-rattler). Both teams had an xG of 1.2, but only Man Utd were able to make this count.

In the second half, United’s possession dropped to a staggering 24%. For a "Big Six" team at home, this is usually a disaster, but their xG Conceded remained nearly identical to Newcastle’s (1.17 to 1.18), proving the "bus" was perfectly parked.

Patrick Dorgu completed 4 progressive carries while playing out of position. He was the only player providing "verticality" when the rest of the team was pinned back.

Eddie Howe’s side won 11 corners but generated 0.00 xG from the initial delivery. United’s "First Contact" success rate on defensive set pieces was nearly 90%, a massive win for Amorim’s set piece coaching staff.

Tune in for next week’s match pick of Gameweek 19 for analysis

All stats for this analysis are provided by Sports Reference (FBref)