#23 Are Arsenal still on track for the title?

Have Arsenal’s wheels fallen off? Their 6 point lead in the table a few games ago has now dwindled down to 2.

But despite this, Arsenal somewhat underperformed goals wise against Villa. Villa’s xG for the game was 2.1, Arsenal’s was 1.9. Arsenal played well enough to earn a draw, and the xG backs this up. Those two figures mean that Villa scored what was expected from the chances they created. Likewise Arsenal scored less than what was expected.

The xG shows that both teams were expected to score twice from the chances created. But a game is all about creating and taking opportunities. A team might create plenty of chances but not take all the opportunities or the opposition goalkeeper may play out of his skin to prevent the opportunities being taken. There are lots of variables as to why a team doesn’t take all the created opportunities.

A team can also score more than its xG for the game because they were clinical on the chances created or/and got lucky (such as an own goal, or the opposition keeper played like a lemming)

So in this game Villa v Arsenal, if the score had been 3-1 or 2-2 or even 1-2 or 1-3 that would have not been an unreasonable expectation based on both teams xG for the game.

However, if you look at the Arsenal xG chart above you will see that their xG overall is still trending up, despite the loss. This indicates their performances are still strong. They are actually still on track.

Why?

xG is not really a game by game reflection. xG is most valuable over larger sample sizes (10+ games). One team might have 1.5 xG and score 0; another might have 1.5 xG and score 3. Over a season, these variances tend to even out, and teams generally regress toward their xG average. So in a single 1.5 xG game, it wouldn’t be strictly true to say "Team A should have scored 2" it would be more reasonable to say "Team A created enough quality chances that the expectation is about 1 to 2 goals on average”, and anything from 0 to 3 goals wouldn't be out of the norm either.

Arsenal’s xG is showing no signs of dipping and their xG after 15 EPL games has got them to the top of the league.

Arsenal are still setting the pace despite a few medium term injuries to key players especially in defence. They are still the ones to catch. If their xG does start to dip then we would have to reassess that statement, and with Man City chasing in 2nd could this video be how the race is looking from both sides?

Next I will look at the xG of the current 2nd to 4th teams, Man City, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace.

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All stats for this analysis are provided by Sports Reference